Commercial electricity price forecast

The U.S. commercial price by month

Months through October 2026 are history; from November 2026 the line is EIA’s forecast. Prices rise each summer, when air conditioning lifts demand and some utilities charge summer rates.

By region

EIA forecasts nine census divisions, not single states. Each state’s page shows its division’s figures, and the state’s own price history is there too.

Download the monthly figures as CSV, each month marked as history or forecast. Annual figures are EIA’s monthly prices weighted by EIA’s monthly sales, which is how an annual average is defined; worked out this way, EIA’s 2025 months give 13.37¢, EIA’s final figure for the year.

How to use a price forecast

• It is an average. It covers every commercial customer in a region. Your own price depends on your rate schedule, your demand and, where there is supplier choice, your contract.
• It moves. EIA revises the outlook every month, and this page is refreshed from it. It stops showing a forecast six weeks after EIA published it, so what is here is never more than one release old.
• It is not adjusted for inflation, so it can be set straight against a bill.
• The parts move differently. Energy follows wholesale prices; delivery charges change when a utility’s rates are reset. Rates by state shows how much of each state’s price is delivery.

For your own figures, the cost estimator gives a range by building type and size, and commercial vs residential vs industrial shows how each class has moved since 2010.

Common questions

Will commercial electricity prices go up in 2027?

EIA forecasts it. In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA puts the U.S. average commercial price at 14.26¢ per kWh for 2027, against 14.01¢ estimated for 2026 and 13.37¢ actual in 2025. It is an average over every commercial customer, not adjusted for inflation, and the forecast is revised every month.

Where are commercial electricity prices forecast to rise most?

By census division, EIA’s November 2026 outlook has the largest change from 2025 to 2027 in East North Central (up 10.5%) and the smallest in Mountain (up 2.7%). EIA does not forecast single states or utilities in this outlook.

How reliable is EIA’s electricity price forecast?

It is a model forecast from EIA’s Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System, updated monthly, and it moves with fuel prices, weather and the economy. Read it as a direction and a range for a budget, not a price anyone will be charged. A fixed-price supply contract, where it is available, is the way to remove that uncertainty from part of a bill.

How should a business budget for electricity next year?

Start from your own last 12 months of bills, not an average, then apply the change EIA forecasts for your region as one scenario and a higher one as a second. In 2025 to 2027 terms that is up 6.7% for the U.S. as a whole. Delivery charges and riders change on the utility’s own schedule, which a forecast of the average does not show.